⏱️ 8 min read
Throughout history, seemingly impossible coincidences have captivated our imagination and challenged our understanding of probability. While these events often appear supernatural or mystical, most can be explained through mathematical principles, cognitive biases, and the sheer volume of events occurring in our world. This exploration delves into some of the most remarkable coincidences ever recorded and examines the rational explanations behind them.
Understanding the Science Behind Coincidences
Before examining specific cases, it’s important to understand why coincidences seem so extraordinary. The human brain is wired to recognize patterns and assign meaning to them, often overlooking the countless non-coincidental events that occur daily. Additionally, the law of truly large numbers suggests that with enough opportunities, even extremely unlikely events become virtually certain to occur.
1. The Lincoln-Kennedy Presidential Parallels
One of the most famous coincidence compilations involves Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy. Both presidents were elected to Congress in ’46, became president in ’60, were assassinated on a Friday, and were succeeded by vice presidents named Johnson. Lincoln’s secretary was named Kennedy, while Kennedy’s secretary was named Lincoln. While these similarities seem astounding, they represent cherry-picked data from thousands of presidential facts. When examining all details about both presidents, the coincidental matches represent a tiny fraction. This phenomenon demonstrates confirmation bias, where we remember hits and forget misses. Millions of facts exist about any two individuals, making some matches statistically inevitable.
2. The Hoover Dam Deaths Bookending Construction
During construction of the Hoover Dam, the first person to die was J.G. Tierney, a surveyor who drowned on December 20, 1922, while performing preliminary work. Remarkably, the last person to die during construction was Patrick Tierney, J.G.’s son, who fell from one of the intake towers exactly 13 years later on December 20, 1935. While this appears to be an eerie coincidence, it’s explained by several factors. Patrick likely worked on the project partly due to his father’s prior involvement, creating a connection rather than pure chance. Additionally, with 112 deaths during the project and thousands of workers, having related individuals and matching dates becomes more probable when considering the entire timeline and workforce.
3. The Titanic Novel Prediction
In 1898, author Morgan Robertson published “The Wreck of the Titan,” a novel about an “unsinkable” ocean liner called the Titan that strikes an iceberg and sinks in the North Atlantic. Fourteen years later, the Titanic met a nearly identical fate. Both ships were approximately the same size, deemed unsinkable, carried too few lifeboats, and struck icebergs in April. However, this coincidence is less mysterious when contextually examined. During that era, larger ships were indeed becoming common, North Atlantic routes were standard, icebergs were known hazards, and spring crossings were typical. Robertson, being knowledgeable about maritime matters, essentially predicted a plausible disaster scenario that reflected industry trends and known dangers rather than supernatural foresight.
4. The Twin Brothers’ Identical Fatal Accidents
In 2002, Finnish twin brothers died in nearly identical bicycle accidents along the same road, struck by trucks, within hours of each other. While shocking, this coincidence has logical explanations rooted in shared genetics, environment, and habits. Twins often develop similar routines, behaviors, and risk-taking patterns. Both brothers likely cycled the same route regularly, faced the same traffic conditions, and possibly shared similar reflexes and decision-making processes. Finland’s relatively sparse population and limited major roads increase the probability of family members using the same routes. When combined with the dangerous nature of that particular road for cyclists, the tragic coincidence becomes a convergence of shared behavioral patterns and environmental risk factors rather than supernatural intervention.
5. The Falling Baby and the Same Bystander
In Detroit during the 1930s, a man named Joseph Figlock was walking down the street when a baby fell from a fourth-story window and landed on him. Both survived. A year later, Figlock was again passing the same spot when the same baby fell and landed on him again—both survived once more. This remarkable story illustrates how routine patterns create coincidence opportunities. Figlock likely walked the same route regularly at similar times, establishing a predictable pattern. The family lived in the building and the child’s access to windows created recurring danger. While extraordinary, this coincidence emerged from repetitive behaviors creating multiple opportunities for the unlikely event, combined with the fortunate physics of a breaking fall that prevented fatal outcomes.
6. The Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand and the Sandwich
The assassination that triggered World War I involved an extraordinary coincidence. After a failed bombing attempt, Archduke Franz Ferdinand’s driver took a wrong turn and stalled directly in front of assassin Gavrilo Princip, who was reportedly buying a sandwich. While often portrayed as pure chance, historical analysis reveals contributing factors. Princip and fellow conspirators had positioned themselves along expected routes, increasing encounter probability. The streets were narrow with limited alternative paths. The driver’s confusion after the earlier attack made mistakes more likely. Additionally, the “sandwich” detail appears to be a later embellishment with no contemporary documentation. This case demonstrates how coincidences are often amplified in retelling while underlying logical factors are minimized.
7. The Tamerlane Curse and World War II
In 1941, Soviet archaeologists opened the tomb of the Mongol emperor Tamerlane despite local legends warning of catastrophe. Within days, Nazi Germany invaded the Soviet Union. Later, when Tamerlane’s remains were reburied with full Islamic rites in 1942, the Soviets achieved their first major victory at Stalingrad. This apparent curse is explained by timing coincidence and selective memory. Operation Barbarossa was planned months in advance, unrelated to archaeological activities. The correlation exists only because both events occurred during the same historical period. Humans naturally seek causal connections between temporally related events, a cognitive bias called “post hoc ergo propter hoc.” Thousands of events occurred between the tomb opening and the invasion that are forgotten because they don’t create compelling narratives.
8. The Bermuda Triangle Coincidental Disappearances
The Bermuda Triangle has gained infamy for alleged mysterious disappearances of ships and aircraft. However, statistical analysis reveals no higher incident rate than comparable ocean regions with similar traffic volumes. The coincidence of multiple incidents is explained by the area’s heavy traffic, unpredictable weather patterns, deep waters complicating wreckage recovery, and the Gulf Stream’s ability to disperse debris. Many Triangle disappearances have mundane explanations involving mechanical failures, pilot error, or documented storms. The perception of coincidental clustering results from confirmation bias and media attention rather than actual statistical anomaly. When controlling for traffic density and weather conditions, the Triangle shows normal accident rates, demonstrating how perception can create coincidence where none statistically exists.
9. The Birthday Problem and Shared Birthdays
In any group of just 23 randomly selected people, there’s a 50% probability that two share the same birthday—a figure that surprises most people who intuitively expect much lower odds. This famous probability puzzle explains countless “amazing” birthday coincidences people experience. The mathematics work because we’re not seeking a specific matching date but any match among all possible pairs. With 23 people, there are 253 possible pair combinations, creating numerous opportunities for matches. This principle explains why coincidental meetings, phone calls, or thoughts about someone “just when” something happens occur more frequently than intuition suggests. The sheer number of daily interactions and thoughts creates countless opportunities for temporal alignment, making coincidences mathematically inevitable rather than mystical.
10. The Lottery Winner Who Won Twice
Numerous individuals have won major lottery prizes multiple times, leading to accusations of impossibility or fraud. Joan Ginther won the Texas lottery four times, totaling $20 million. While each individual ticket has astronomical odds against winning, the explanation lies in understanding population statistics versus individual probability. With millions of people buying multiple lottery tickets over decades, the probability that someone, somewhere will win multiple times becomes surprisingly high. Additionally, some repeat winners purchase hundreds or thousands of tickets, dramatically increasing their chances. Mathematical analysis shows that given the number of lottery players and tickets sold globally, multiple winners are not only possible but statistically expected. This demonstrates how events that seem impossible for individuals become probable across entire populations.
The Role of Probability and Perception
These coincidences illustrate fundamental principles about probability, human psychology, and pattern recognition. Our brains evolved to detect patterns for survival, sometimes leading us to see significance where only randomness exists. The vast number of events occurring globally every moment creates countless opportunities for unlikely alignments. When we understand these principles, extraordinary coincidences transform from mysterious phenomena into expected outcomes of living in a complex, interconnected world with billions of people experiencing trillions of events daily. Rather than diminishing wonder, this understanding reveals the fascinating mathematics underlying our reality and the remarkable ways probability manifests in everyday life.